Why World War 3 is more likely than you think!

Lately, headlines warning about the possibility of World War 3 seem to be increasing. Normally, I’m not one to worry about such things. However, when respected voices, like the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, start raising alarms, it’s worth paying closer attention.

Why I Used to Dismiss the Idea

I always believed World War 3 was unlikely, largely because of how interconnected the world has become.

Modern economies are deeply interdependent, tied together through trade, investment, and global supply chains. Every major country imports some or the other critical resource – energy, food, raw materials – that sustain everyday life. Financial markets are globally linked, with economic shocks in one region rippling across the globe.

This “mutual economic vulnerability” serves as a strong deterrent against large-scale conflicts. A major war would disrupt these networks, collapsing economies worldwide and leaving all nations worse off.

The Reality of Black Swan Events

World War 3 would qualify as a “black swan” event—rare, unpredictable, but with devastating consequences.

While the likelihood may seem slim, recent history shows that black swan events are more plausible than we might think:

• War in Europe: Few predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, yet it has reshaped geopolitics and created global uncertainty. Similarly, few saw a large war breaking out in the Middle East.
• The COVID-19 Pandemic: A global health crisis caught the world off guard, crippling economies and daily life.
• The 2008 Financial Crisis: An unexpected collapse of financial markets nearly plunged the world into economic depression.

These examples demonstrate that even highly improbable scenarios can materialize, often with severe repercussions. Ignoring the possibility of World War 3 may leave us unprepared for its potentially catastrophic consequences.

Why Is World War 3 Possible?

To understand why such a conflict could occur, let’s revisit 1909—a period remarkably similar to today.

Europe was thriving in what historians call the “first era of globalization”. Nations were interconnected through trade, exchanging raw materials, manufactured goods, and capital. Technological advances like railroads, steamships, and the telegraph accelerated international commerce, making economies more interdependent than ever.

This economic integration created a widespread belief that a global war was inconceivable. Many assumed such a conflict would ruin all participating nations, making it too costly to consider.

It was in this context that Norman Angell published The Great Illusion. Angell argued that war was economically irrational in a modern, interconnected world. He posited that conquering another country would no longer yield sufficient benefits to justify the immense costs. Instead, Angell advocated for diplomacy and cooperation, emphasizing the shared prosperity that peace could bring.

Unfortunately, history proved otherwise. Despite this logic, World War I erupted just a few years later, plunging the world into chaos. The conflict devastated economies and societies for years to come.

Lessons from History

Before World War 1, Britain and Germany were major trading partners with tightly interconnected economies. So why did they still go to war?

• One explanation lies in the Thucydides Trap, the tension and conflict that can arise when a rising power threatens an established one. Before World War I, Britain was the dominant global power, and Germany’s rise threatened that position. Today, we see parallels between the U.S. (current global power) and China (a rising challenger).
• National pride and political rivalries often override economic logic. For example, despite Germany and Britain’s trade ties, their naval arms race and imperial competition deepened hostility. Similarly, while the U.S. and China are major trading partners, their political rivalry continues to escalate.
• The intricate alliance systems of the early 20th century, like the Triple Entente and Triple Alliance, acted as a domino effect, pulling nations into conflict. Today, the world is once again divided into multiple alliances, heightening tensions globally.
• Another factor is the decline of democracies. Democracies are generally less prone to wars, but in recent years, we’ve seen a global erosion of democratic values, increasing the risk of conflict.

History reminds us that no matter how interconnected or stable the world may seem, the potential for large-scale conflict remains. Economic interdependence alone cannot counteract the forces of nationalism and geopolitical competition.

While the probability of World War 3 remains low, its consequences would be unparalleled, reshaping the world in ways we can scarcely imagine.

Part 2 -> What can be done in order to prepare for World War 3.

---