Everyone thinks they can do it:
Buy low; sell high. Retire early. Go on CNBC and talk about it.
But April 2025 has been a masterclass in why that almost never happens in real life – unless you have a crystal ball!
Let’s look at a couple of examples.
April 9: A 90-Day Pause and a 10% Pop – Did Anyone See That Coming?
On April 9, just as investors were chewing their fingernails off over escalating trade tensions, came a surprise: President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most global tariffs. Wall Street rallied hard:
- The S&P 500 shot up nearly 10% – its biggest jump since 2008.
- The Nasdaq surged more than 12%.
- Everyone on Twitter suddenly became a genius trader. “Told you the dip was over,” they tweeted.
As I was looking at this, I was thinking, “Wow, the whole US market has now become a giant meme stock!?”
People who had been on the sidelines, waiting to buy when the market “crashed”, were suddenly left wondering if they had missed their chance? Some jumped in and bought stocks.
April 10: Never Mind. Back to Reality.
The next day the rally reversed just as suddenly as it had begun.
On April 10, markets gave up a third of the previous day’s gains. Doubts crept back in – about tariffs, about inflation, about whether the pause even mattered.
- The S&P 500 dropped over 3%.
- The Nasdaq fell 4%.
- Financial Twitter? Deafening silence.
People who had bought in on April 9, you were staring at losses less than 24 hours later.
You don’t just have to buy the dip, you also have to know when to sell. That requires being right twice in a row! It requires knowing in advance exactly when the market if going to go down and then exactly when it going to go up.
Spoiler alert: you don’t know that.
Another spoiler alert: no one else knows that either.
The Real Threat Isn’t Missing One Rally. It’s Missing Them All.
That week was a perfect example of why timing the market is so tough. It’s not just about having the right information – it’s about acting fast, with confidence, in a moment where emotions are all over the place.
Yes, some investors might’ve nailed it. But for every one of them, there are thousands more who hesitated, overthought, or jumped in too late.
Just like the lottery. Yes, someone does win the lottery. But that cannot be an investing strategy.
Here’s a stat that should keep market timers up at night. Historically, just 10 – 20 trading days account for the majority of annual market gains.
Miss those 10 or 20 days in a year, and your returns are zero. Even worse? Those days often come during high volatility – right when fear is peaking and investors are most likely to step aside.
If you’re sitting in cash, waiting for the “right” moment, odds are good you’ll miss it. The best day might come right after the worst.
So, What Do I Do?
Long time readers of the blog know the answer to this question. I invest a little money with each paycheck. It’s not flashy. But it works. If you need a reminder why, revisit My Greatest Investing Edge: Doing Nothing.
Time in the market is more important than timing the market. – Peter Lynch
Over time these investments will grow and you will be handsomely rewarded. If you are a time billionaire – congratulations – you have all the time in the world to enjoy these returns.
In Closing
The markets are going to do what they do—lurch, soar, panic, recover. If you’re always reacting, you’re always late. And if you’re trying to predict what’s next based on headlines, you might as well hunt for a crystal ball.
So stop trying to “beat the market.” You don’t need a crystal ball. You just need to stay in the game.
Because in the end, the goal isn’t to time the market. It’s to not let the market time you out.
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