Overhyped and Underbuilt: Why We Keep Getting the Future Wrong

We’ve seen this movie before. And like most sequels, it’s louder, flashier, and still misses the point.

The dot-com boom of the late 1990s promised to change everything. Groceries, news, relationships – even dog food – suddenly had a .com slapped on it like gold stars on a kindergarten report card. Investors threw money at ideas without business plans, and for a moment, it felt like the Internet would change the world overnight.

Then it didn’t. The bubble burst. Pets.com became a joke. And people decided the Internet was all hype.

But quietly, steadily, the Internet did change everything. Not in two years. But in twenty.

Now in 2025, it feels like déjà vu. The technology is different – Artificial Intelligence (AI) instead of the Internet – but the pattern is the same. AI is in headlines, in pitch decks, in office tools, and all over your feed writing poems you didn’t ask for. There’s hype, fear, big promises, and a lot of hand-waving. And once again, we’re doing what we always do:

Overestimating what happens next year. Underestimating what happens over the next decade.

The Hype Curve Is Real

At first, it’s all noise. People claim AI will write novels, run businesses, and take over entire industries. Some of that is real. A lot of it isn’t. Most of it is still clunky, untested, or just not ready – like your friend’s sourdough starter in 2020.

That doesn’t mean it won’t matter. It just means big change doesn’t happen on schedule.

We like things that are dramatic and fast. But real change is quiet. It sneaks in through tools, habits, and things we stop noticing. It’s slow – until it’s not.

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Roy Amara

A Few Predictions

So what might this slow burn look like? Here are a few grounded guesses:

• AI might not take your job, but it’ll be your annoying coworker. Think of it like a very eager intern: helpful, smart sometimes, but needs a lot of coaching.
• Search will get strange. Instead of “Googling,” we’ll be chatting with bots that give us answers. There’ll be fewer links and more conversations – and a new kind of noise to cut through.
• The real change will be behind the scenes. Not in shiny apps, but in the quiet ways decisions are made, tasks are done, and time is saved.

In short: don’t expect flying cars. Expect less paperwork, faster answers, smarter tools – and maybe a little more breathing room.

The Long Game

In the long run? Everything changes. How we work, learn, govern, create, and connect – AI will weave itself into it all. First slowly, then suddenly.

Whole industries will shift – not just from automation, but from entirely new ways of thinking. School and learning will become super personalized. Healthcare will get radially better with early diagnosis, real-time monitoring, and optimized treatments. Relationships could change as we spend more time with digital tools and personalities. Governments might use data to make decisions faster… this one I am not sure about – but let’s hope this happens!

It won’t feel like science fiction. It’ll feel like one day, things are just… different. Because they changed a little every day.

And we will not be able to imagine how life was before AI. Just like today it is hard to imagine life before the internet.

Closing Thoughts

We’re not bad at seeing what’s coming—we’re just bad at being patient.

The Internet didn’t change the world in 1999. But by 2020, it had. And AI won’t flip the world upside down next year. But by 2040? We might be living in a world we barely recognize.

The key is to stick around long enough to see it happen. And maybe enjoy the wait while we’re at it.

But also – prepare for it. AI might not take your job, but someone who knows how to use AI might. The real threat isn’t AI – it’s being outpaced by people who know how to use it well.

So, don’t fear it. Learn it. Get curious. Get fluent.

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